* Rapid Service/Prediction of Earth Orientation *

People looking for something to be frightened about, but who prefer to have their fears based on something more solid than the imaginations of others looking for something to be frightened about might find this comforting.

The spin axis of earth and the movement of the planetary magnetic fields are constantly being monitored, measured, recorded from a lot of different locations.  The people doing it study the results, make them available in the form of email newsletters, and based on actual observations, attempt to predict what can be expected in terms of the magnetic field movement and spin axis wobble over the coming months.

 

Not to suggest their predictions are founded on more concrete information than a rock found in the ruins left by people who died several hundred years ago, or other people who just feel in their heads the planetary axis is going to tilt just for the hell of it, or the magnetic field will reverse itself without anyone noticing before it happens.

 

Here are their predictions for 2012. 

  • IERS Bulletin A‏

From: Earth Orientation Dept. USNO (ser7@maia.usno.navy.mil)
Sent: Thu 1/12/12 11:52 AM
To:
 
**********************************************************************
* *
* I E R S B U L L E T I N - A *
* *
* Rapid Service/Prediction of Earth Orientation *
**********************************************************************
12 January 2012 Vol. XXV No. 002
______________________________________________________________________
GENERAL INFORMATION:
To receive this information electronically, contact:
ser7@maia.usno.navy.mil or use
a href="http://maia.usno.navy.mil/docrequest.html" target="_blank">http://maia.usno.navy.mil/docrequest.html>
MJD = Julian Date - 2 400 000.5 days
UT2-UT1 = 0.022 sin(2*pi*T) - 0.012 cos(2*pi*T)
- 0.006 sin(4*pi*T) + 0.007 cos(4*pi*T)
where pi = 3.14159265... and T is the date in Besselian years.
TT = TAI + 32.184 seconds
DUT1= (UT1-UTC) transmitted with time signals
= -0.4 seconds beginning 04 Nov 2011 at 0000 UTC
Beginning 1 January 2009:
TAI-UTC = 34.000 000 seconds
***********************************************************************
* A positive leap second WILL be introduced *
* in UTC on 30 June 2012. *
***********************************************************************
________________________________________________________________________
The contributed observations used in the preparation of this Bulletin
are available at a href="http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/earth-orientation/" target="_blank">http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/earth-orientation/
eo-info/general/input-data>. The contributed analysis results are based
on data from Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Satellite Laser
Ranging (SLR), the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, Lunar
Laser Ranging (LLR), and meteorological predictions of variations in
Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM).
________________________________________________________________________

COMBINED EARTH ORIENTATION PARAMETERS:

IERS Rapid Service
MJD x error y error UT1-UTC error
" " " " s s
12 1 6 55932 0.11140 .00009 0.25998 .00009 -0.424054 0.000008
12 1 7 55933 0.10896 .00009 0.25964 .00009 -0.424778 0.000010
12 1 8 55934 0.10649 .00009 0.25894 .00009 -0.425542 0.000013
12 1 9 55935 0.10418 .00009 0.25811 .00009 -0.426383 0.000013
12 1 10 55936 0.10185 .00009 0.25721 .00009 -0.427321 0.000013
12 1 11 55937 0.09985 .00009 0.25609 .00009 -0.428356 0.000014
12 1 12 55938 0.09834 .00009 0.25500 .00009 -0.429557 0.000055

_______________________________________________________________________

PREDICTIONS:
The following formulas will not reproduce the predictions given below,
but may be used to extend the predictions beyond the end of this table.

x = 0.0842 - 0.0405 cos A - 0.1162 sin A + 0.0545 cos C + 0.0290 sin C
y = 0.3305 - 0.1073 cos A + 0.0327 sin A + 0.0290 cos C - 0.0545 sin C
UT1-UTC = -0.4472 - 0.00087 (MJD - 55946) - (UT2-UT1)

where A = 2*pi*(MJD-55938)/365.25 and C = 2*pi*(MJD-55938)/435.

TAI-UTC(MJD 55939) = 34.0
The accuracy may be estimated from the expressions:
S x,y = 0.00068 (MJD-55938)**0.80 S t = 0.00025 (MJD-55938)**0.75
Estimated accuracies are: Predictions 10 d 20 d 30 d 40 d
Polar coord's 0.004 0.007 0.010 0.013
UT1-UTC 0.0014 0.0024 0.0032 0.0040

MJD x(arcsec) y(arcsec) UT1-UTC(sec)
2012 1 13 55939 0.0970 0.2543 -0.43096
2012 1 14 55940 0.0957 0.2539 -0.43246
2012 1 15 55941 0.0944 0.2536 -0.43394
2012 1 16 55942 0.0930 0.2534 -0.43526
2012 1 17 55943 0.0917 0.2534 -0.43638
2012 1 18 55944 0.0903 0.2534 -0.43728
2012 1 19 55945 0.0889 0.2534 -0.43799
2012 1 20 55946 0.0876 0.2535 -0.43859
2012 1 21 55947 0.0863 0.2536 -0.43917
2012 1 22 55948 0.0850 0.2538 -0.43987
2012 1 23 55949 0.0837 0.2540 -0.44074
2012 1 24 55950 0.0824 0.2542 -0.44180
2012 1 25 55951 0.0811 0.2545 -0.44298
2012 1 26 55952 0.0798 0.2548 -0.44426
2012 1 27 55953 0.0785 0.2551 -0.44558
2012 1 28 55954 0.0773 0.2554 -0.44688
2012 1 29 55955 0.0761 0.2557 -0.44812
2012 1 30 55956 0.0750 0.2561 -0.44929
2012 1 31 55957 0.0738 0.2566 -0.45036
2012 2 1 55958 0.0727 0.2570 -0.45135
2012 2 2 55959 0.0716 0.2575 -0.45225
2012 2 3 55960 0.0705 0.2581 -0.45308
2012 2 4 55961 0.0694 0.2587 -0.45391
2012 2 5 55962 0.0684 0.2592 -0.45479
2012 2 6 55963 0.0673 0.2599 -0.45580
2012 2 7 55964 0.0663 0.2605 -0.45699
2012 2 8 55965 0.0653 0.2612 -0.45837
2012 2 9 55966 0.0643 0.2618 -0.45993
2012 2 10 55967 0.0633 0.2625 -0.46160
2012 2 11 55968 0.0624 0.2632 -0.46328
2012 2 12 55969 0.0614 0.2640 -0.46488
2012 2 13 55970 0.0605 0.2647 -0.46631
2012 2 14 55971 0.0596 0.2655 -0.46755
2012 2 15 55972 0.0588 0.2663 -0.46861
2012 2 16 55973 0.0579 0.2671 -0.46954
2012 2 17 55974 0.0571 0.2679 -0.47042
2012 2 18 55975 0.0562 0.2688 -0.47133
2012 2 19 55976 0.0554 0.2696 -0.47234
2012 2 20 55977 0.0547 0.2705 -0.47346
2012 2 21 55978 0.0539 0.2714 -0.47470
2012 2 22 55979 0.0532 0.2722 -0.47603
2012 2 23 55980 0.0525 0.2732 -0.47739
2012 2 24 55981 0.0518 0.2741 -0.47873
2012 2 25 55982 0.0511 0.2750 -0.48001
2012 2 26 55983 0.0504 0.2759 -0.48119
2012 2 27 55984 0.0498 0.2769 -0.48227
2012 2 28 55985 0.0492 0.2779 -0.48325
2012 2 29 55986 0.0486 0.2788 -0.48413
2012 3 1 55987 0.0480 0.2798 -0.48495
2012 3 2 55988 0.0475 0.2808 -0.48576
2012 3 3 55989 0.0470 0.2818 -0.48661
2012 3 4 55990 0.0465 0.2828 -0.48756
2012 3 5 55991 0.0460 0.2838 -0.48868
2012 3 6 55992 0.0455 0.2848 -0.49001
2012 3 7 55993 0.0451 0.2859 -0.49155
2012 3 8 55994 0.0447 0.2869 -0.49326
2012 3 9 55995 0.0443 0.2879 -0.49506
2012 3 10 55996 0.0439 0.2890 -0.49685
2012 3 11 55997 0.0435 0.2900 -0.49853
2012 3 12 55998 0.0432 0.2911 -0.50003
2012 3 13 55999 0.0429 0.2922 -0.50134
2012 3 14 56000 0.0426 0.2932 -0.50251
2012 3 15 56001 0.0424 0.2943 -0.50361
2012 3 16 56002 0.0421 0.2954 -0.50473
2012 3 17 56003 0.0419 0.2964 -0.50593
2012 3 18 56004 0.0417 0.2975 -0.50723
2012 3 19 56005 0.0415 0.2986 -0.50866
2012 3 20 56006 0.0414 0.2997 -0.51018
2012 3 21 56007 0.0413 0.3008 -0.51175
2012 3 22 56008 0.0411 0.3019 -0.51332
2012 3 23 56009 0.0411 0.3029 -0.51484
2012 3 24 56010 0.0410 0.3040 -0.51628
2012 3 25 56011 0.0409 0.3051 -0.51760
2012 3 26 56012 0.0409 0.3062 -0.51880
2012 3 27 56013 0.0409 0.3073 -0.51989
2012 3 28 56014 0.0409 0.3084 -0.52090
2012 3 29 56015 0.0410 0.3095 -0.52188
2012 3 30 56016 0.0411 0.3105 -0.52288
2012 3 31 56017 0.0411 0.3116 -0.52395
2012 4 1 56018 0.0412 0.3127 -0.52515
2012 4 2 56019 0.0414 0.3138 -0.52653
2012 4 3 56020 0.0415 0.3148 -0.52812
2012 4 4 56021 0.0417 0.3159 -0.52990
2012 4 5 56022 0.0419 0.3170 -0.53183
2012 4 6 56023 0.0421 0.3180 -0.53380
2012 4 7 56024 0.0423 0.3191 -0.53570
2012 4 8 56025 0.0426 0.3201 -0.53744
2012 4 9 56026 0.0429 0.3212 -0.53896
2012 4 10 56027 0.0431 0.3222 -0.54029
2012 4 11 56028 0.0435 0.3232 -0.54150
2012 4 12 56029 0.0438 0.3242 -0.54268
2012 4 13 56030 0.0441 0.3253 -0.54390
2012 4 14 56031 0.0445 0.3263 -0.54520
2012 4 15 56032 0.0449 0.3273 -0.54659
2012 4 16 56033 0.0453 0.3283 -0.54805
2012 4 17 56034 0.0457 0.3293 -0.54954
2012 4 18 56035 0.0462 0.3303 -0.55102
2012 4 19 56036 0.0466 0.3312 -0.55246
2012 4 20 56037 0.0471 0.3322 -0.55381
2012 4 21 56038 0.0476 0.3331 -0.55504
2012 4 22 56039 0.0481 0.3341 -0.55615
2012 4 23 56040 0.0486 0.3350 -0.55714
2012 4 24 56041 0.0492 0.3360 -0.55803
2012 4 25 56042 0.0497 0.3369 -0.55887
2012 4 26 56043 0.0503 0.3378 -0.55969
2012 4 27 56044 0.0509 0.3387 -0.56055
2012 4 28 56045 0.0515 0.3396 -0.56150
2012 4 29 56046 0.0522 0.3404 -0.56258
2012 4 30 56047 0.0528 0.3413 -0.56385
2012 5 1 56048 0.0535 0.3422 -0.56529
2012 5 2 56049 0.0541 0.3430 -0.56689
2012 5 3 56050 0.0548 0.3438 -0.56857
2012 5 4 56051 0.0555 0.3447 -0.57024
2012 5 5 56052 0.0562 0.3455 -0.57179
2012 5 6 56053 0.0570 0.3463 -0.57315
2012 5 7 56054 0.0577 0.3470 -0.57431
2012 5 8 56055 0.0585 0.3478 -0.57532
2012 5 9 56056 0.0592 0.3486 -0.57625
2012 5 10 56057 0.0600 0.3493 -0.57718
2012 5 11 56058 0.0608 0.3500 -0.57818
2012 5 12 56059 0.0616 0.3507 -0.57925
2012 5 13 56060 0.0624 0.3514 -0.58038
2012 5 14 56061 0.0632 0.3521 -0.58153
2012 5 15 56062 0.0641 0.3528 -0.58266
2012 5 16 56063 0.0649 0.3534 -0.58372
2012 5 17 56064 0.0658 0.3541 -0.58469
2012 5 18 56065 0.0666 0.3547 -0.58553
2012 5 19 56066 0.0675 0.3553 -0.58623
2012 5 20 56067 0.0684 0.3559 -0.58680
2012 5 21 56068 0.0693 0.3565 -0.58726
2012 5 22 56069 0.0702 0.3571 -0.58764
2012 5 23 56070 0.0711 0.3576 -0.58799
2012 5 24 56071 0.0720 0.3582 -0.58836
2012 5 25 56072 0.0729 0.3587 -0.58879
2012 5 26 56073 0.0739 0.3592 -0.58933
2012 5 27 56074 0.0748 0.3597 -0.59002
2012 5 28 56075 0.0758 0.3601 -0.59085
2012 5 29 56076 0.0767 0.3606 -0.59181
2012 5 30 56077 0.0777 0.3610 -0.59287
2012 5 31 56078 0.0786 0.3615 -0.59395
2012 6 1 56079 0.0796 0.3619 -0.59497
2012 6 2 56080 0.0806 0.3622 -0.59584
2012 6 3 56081 0.0815 0.3626 -0.59653
2012 6 4 56082 0.0825 0.3630 -0.59705
2012 6 5 56083 0.0835 0.3633 -0.59748
2012 6 6 56084 0.0845 0.3636 -0.59789
2012 6 7 56085 0.0854 0.3640 -0.59835
2012 6 8 56086 0.0864 0.3642 -0.59891
2012 6 9 56087 0.0874 0.3645 -0.59955
2012 6 10 56088 0.0884 0.3648 -0.60022
2012 6 11 56089 0.0894 0.3650 -0.60088
2012 6 12 56090 0.0904 0.3652 -0.60147
2012 6 13 56091 0.0914 0.3655 -0.60197
2012 6 14 56092 0.0924 0.3656 -0.60234
2012 6 15 56093 0.0934 0.3658 -0.60258
2012 6 16 56094 0.0944 0.3660 -0.60269
2012 6 17 56095 0.0954 0.3661 -0.60267
2012 6 18 56096 0.0964 0.3662 -0.60258
2012 6 19 56097 0.0973 0.3663 -0.60245
2012 6 20 56098 0.0983 0.3664 -0.60233
2012 6 21 56099 0.0993 0.3665 -0.60228
2012 6 22 56100 0.1003 0.3666 -0.60233
2012 6 23 56101 0.1013 0.3666 -0.60252
2012 6 24 56102 0.1022 0.3666 -0.60285
2012 6 25 56103 0.1032 0.3667 -0.60332
2012 6 26 56104 0.1042 0.3666 -0.60387
2012 6 27 56105 0.1051 0.3666 -0.60446
2012 6 28 56106 0.1061 0.3666 -0.60500
2012 6 29 56107 0.1071 0.3665 -0.60543
2012 6 30 56108 0.1080 0.3665 -0.60571
2012 7 1 56109 0.1089 0.3664 0.39415
2012 7 2 56110 0.1099 0.3663 0.39413
2012 7 3 56111 0.1108 0.3662 0.39414
2012 7 4 56112 0.1117 0.3660 0.39410
2012 7 5 56113 0.1127 0.3659 0.39396
2012 7 6 56114 0.1136 0.3657 0.39371
2012 7 7 56115 0.1145 0.3655 0.39339
2012 7 8 56116 0.1154 0.3653 0.39305
2012 7 9 56117 0.1162 0.3651 0.39275
2012 7 10 56118 0.1171 0.3649 0.39254
2012 7 11 56119 0.1180 0.3647 0.39245
2012 7 12 56120 0.1188 0.3644 0.39251
2012 7 13 56121 0.1197 0.3642 0.39272
2012 7 14 56122 0.1205 0.3639 0.39305
2012 7 15 56123 0.1214 0.3636 0.39349
2012 7 16 56124 0.1222 0.3633 0.39399
2012 7 17 56125 0.1230 0.3630 0.39450
2012 7 18 56126 0.1238 0.3627 0.39496
2012 7 19 56127 0.1246 0.3623 0.39533
2012 7 20 56128 0.1253 0.3620 0.39555
2012 7 21 56129 0.1261 0.3616 0.39562
2012 7 22 56130 0.1268 0.3612 0.39553
2012 7 23 56131 0.1276 0.3608 0.39532
2012 7 24 56132 0.1283 0.3604 0.39503
2012 7 25 56133 0.1290 0.3600 0.39474
2012 7 26 56134 0.1297 0.3596 0.39452
2012 7 27 56135 0.1304 0.3591 0.39439
2012 7 28 56136 0.1311 0.3587 0.39437
2012 7 29 56137 0.1318 0.3582 0.39444
2012 7 30 56138 0.1324 0.3577 0.39453
2012 7 31 56139 0.1330 0.3572 0.39459
2012 8 1 56140 0.1337 0.3568 0.39454
2012 8 2 56141 0.1343 0.3563 0.39437
2012 8 3 56142 0.1349 0.3557 0.39408
2012 8 4 56143 0.1354 0.3552 0.39373
2012 8 5 56144 0.1360 0.3547 0.39338
2012 8 6 56145 0.1366 0.3542 0.39308
2012 8 7 56146 0.1371 0.3536 0.39287
2012 8 8 56147 0.1376 0.3530 0.39279
2012 8 9 56148 0.1381 0.3525 0.39282
2012 8 10 56149 0.1386 0.3519 0.39296
2012 8 11 56150 0.1391 0.3513 0.39318
2012 8 12 56151 0.1395 0.3507 0.39341
2012 8 13 56152 0.1400 0.3502 0.39361
2012 8 14 56153 0.1404 0.3496 0.39373
2012 8 15 56154 0.1408 0.3489 0.39374
2012 8 16 56155 0.1412 0.3483 0.39362
2012 8 17 56156 0.1416 0.3477 0.39333
2012 8 18 56157 0.1419 0.3471 0.39286
2012 8 19 56158 0.1423 0.3465 0.39222
2012 8 20 56159 0.1426 0.3458 0.39147
2012 8 21 56160 0.1429 0.3452 0.39070
2012 8 22 56161 0.1432 0.3445 0.38999
2012 8 23 56162 0.1435 0.3439 0.38938
2012 8 24 56163 0.1438 0.3432 0.38887
2012 8 25 56164 0.1440 0.3426 0.38843
2012 8 26 56165 0.1442 0.3419 0.38803
2012 8 27 56166 0.1444 0.3413 0.38754
2012 8 28 56167 0.1446 0.3406 0.38697
2012 8 29 56168 0.1448 0.3399 0.38629
2012 8 30 56169 0.1450 0.3393 0.38546
2012 8 31 56170 0.1451 0.3386 0.38455
2012 9 1 56171 0.1452 0.3379 0.38358
2012 9 2 56172 0.1453 0.3373 0.38254
2012 9 3 56173 0.1454 0.3366 0.38151
2012 9 4 56174 0.1455 0.3359 0.38057
2012 9 5 56175 0.1456 0.3352 0.37971
2012 9 6 56176 0.1456 0.3346 0.37896
2012 9 7 56177 0.1456 0.3339 0.37835
2012 9 8 56178 0.1456 0.3332 0.37776
2012 9 9 56179 0.1456 0.3325 0.37716
2012 9 10 56180 0.1456 0.3319 0.37652
2012 9 11 56181 0.1456 0.3312 0.37582
2012 9 12 56182 0.1455 0.3305 0.37499
2012 9 13 56183 0.1454 0.3299 0.37403
2012 9 14 56184 0.1453 0.3292 0.37291
2012 9 15 56185 0.1452 0.3285 0.37163
2012 9 16 56186 0.1451 0.3279 0.37035
2012 9 17 56187 0.1450 0.3272 0.36906
2012 9 18 56188 0.1448 0.3266 0.36775
2012 9 19 56189 0.1446 0.3259 0.36655
2012 9 20 56190 0.1445 0.3253 0.36543
2012 9 21 56191 0.1442 0.3246 0.36441
2012 9 22 56192 0.1440 0.3240 0.36341
2012 9 23 56193 0.1438 0.3234 0.36229
2012 9 24 56194 0.1435 0.3228 0.36108
2012 9 25 56195 0.1433 0.3221 0.35975
2012 9 26 56196 0.1430 0.3215 0.35829
2012 9 27 56197 0.1427 0.3209 0.35674
2012 9 28 56198 0.1424 0.3203 0.35524
2012 9 29 56199 0.1421 0.3197 0.35379
2012 9 30 56200 0.1417 0.3191 0.35238
2012 10 1 56201 0.1414 0.3185 0.35103
2012 10 2 56202 0.1410 0.3180 0.34983
2012 10 3 56203 0.1406 0.3174 0.34878
2012 10 4 56204 0.1402 0.3168 0.34785
2012 10 5 56205 0.1398 0.3163 0.34698
2012 10 6 56206 0.1394 0.3157 0.34614
2012 10 7 56207 0.1390 0.3152 0.34532
2012 10 8 56208 0.1385 0.3147 0.34455
2012 10 9 56209 0.1381 0.3142 0.34369
2012 10 10 56210 0.1376 0.3136 0.34277
2012 10 11 56211 0.1371 0.3131 0.34174
2012 10 12 56212 0.1366 0.3127 0.34053
2012 10 13 56213 0.1361 0.3122 0.33916
2012 10 14 56214 0.1356 0.3117 0.33776
2012 10 15 56215 0.1351 0.3112 0.33633
2012 10 16 56216 0.1345 0.3108 0.33499
2012 10 17 56217 0.1340 0.3104 0.33379
2012 10 18 56218 0.1334 0.3099 0.33276
2012 10 19 56219 0.1328 0.3095 0.33186
2012 10 20 56220 0.1322 0.3091 0.33102
2012 10 21 56221 0.1317 0.3087 0.33010
2012 10 22 56222 0.1310 0.3083 0.32907
2012 10 23 56223 0.1304 0.3079 0.32797
2012 10 24 56224 0.1298 0.3076 0.32682
2012 10 25 56225 0.1292 0.3072 0.32568
2012 10 26 56226 0.1286 0.3069 0.32459
2012 10 27 56227 0.1279 0.3066 0.32356
2012 10 28 56228 0.1273 0.3062 0.32260
2012 10 29 56229 0.1266 0.3059 0.32167
2012 10 30 56230 0.1259 0.3057 0.32082
2012 10 31 56231 0.1253 0.3054 0.32005
2012 11 1 56232 0.1246 0.3051 0.31935
2012 11 2 56233 0.1239 0.3049 0.31871
2012 11 3 56234 0.1232 0.3046 0.31811
2012 11 4 56235 0.1225 0.3044 0.31742
2012 11 5 56236 0.1218 0.3042 0.31662
2012 11 6 56237 0.1211 0.3040 0.31564
2012 11 7 56238 0.1204 0.3038 0.31447
2012 11 8 56239 0.1197 0.3036 0.31310
2012 11 9 56240 0.1190 0.3035 0.31161
2012 11 10 56241 0.1182 0.3033 0.31000
2012 11 11 56242 0.1175 0.3032 0.30838
2012 11 12 56243 0.1168 0.3031 0.30676
2012 11 13 56244 0.1161 0.3030 0.30528
2012 11 14 56245 0.1153 0.3029 0.30403
2012 11 15 56246 0.1146 0.3028 0.30296
2012 11 16 56247 0.1139 0.3028 0.30198
2012 11 17 56248 0.1131 0.3027 0.30111
2012 11 18 56249 0.1124 0.3027 0.30023
2012 11 19 56250 0.1116 0.3027 0.29928
2012 11 20 56251 0.1109 0.3027 0.29826
2012 11 21 56252 0.1102 0.3027 0.29726
2012 11 22 56253 0.1094 0.3027 0.29632
2012 11 23 56254 0.1087 0.3027 0.29544
2012 11 24 56255 0.1080 0.3028 0.29460
2012 11 25 56256 0.1072 0.3029 0.29383
2012 11 26 56257 0.1065 0.3029 0.29317
2012 11 27 56258 0.1058 0.3030 0.29265
2012 11 28 56259 0.1050 0.3031 0.29222
2012 11 29 56260 0.1043 0.3033 0.29182
2012 11 30 56261 0.1036 0.3034 0.29133
2012 12 1 56262 0.1029 0.3036 0.29082
2012 12 2 56263 0.1021 0.3037 0.29024
2012 12 3 56264 0.1014 0.3039 0.28958
2012 12 4 56265 0.1007 0.3041 0.28883
2012 12 5 56266 0.1000 0.3043 0.28791
2012 12 6 56267 0.0993 0.3045 0.28684
2012 12 7 56268 0.0986 0.3047 0.28570
2012 12 8 56269 0.0979 0.3050 0.28453
2012 12 9 56270 0.0973 0.3053 0.28345
2012 12 10 56271 0.0966 0.3055 0.28245
2012 12 11 56272 0.0959 0.3058 0.28159
2012 12 12 56273 0.0953 0.3061 0.28091
2012 12 13 56274 0.0946 0.3064 0.28029
2012 12 14 56275 0.0940 0.3068 0.27966
2012 12 15 56276 0.0933 0.3071 0.27894
2012 12 16 56277 0.0927 0.3074 0.27807
2012 12 17 56278 0.0921 0.3078 0.27703
2012 12 18 56279 0.0914 0.3082 0.27590
2012 12 19 56280 0.0908 0.3086 0.27476
2012 12 20 56281 0.0903 0.3090 0.27372
2012 12 21 56282 0.0897 0.3094 0.27283
2012 12 22 56283 0.0891 0.3098 0.27204
2012 12 23 56284 0.0885 0.3102 0.27141
2012 12 24 56285 0.0880 0.3107 0.27093
2012 12 25 56286 0.0874 0.3112 0.27059
2012 12 26 56287 0.0869 0.3116 0.27035
2012 12 27 56288 0.0864 0.3121 0.27015
2012 12 28 56289 0.0859 0.3126 0.26994
2012 12 29 56290 0.0854 0.3131 0.26970
2012 12 30 56291 0.0849 0.3136 0.26938
2012 12 31 56292 0.0844 0.3141 0.26897
2013 1 1 56293 0.0840 0.3147 0.26843
2013 1 2 56294 0.0835 0.3152 0.26775
2013 1 3 56295 0.0831 0.3158 0.26698
2013 1 4 56296 0.0827 0.3163 0.26603
2013 1 5 56297 0.0823 0.3169 0.26507
2013 1 6 56298 0.0819 0.3175 0.26412
2013 1 7 56299 0.0815 0.3181 0.26331
2013 1 8 56300 0.0811 0.3187 0.26260
2013 1 9 56301 0.0808 0.3193 0.26195
2013 1 10 56302 0.0804 0.3199 0.26133
2013 1 11 56303 0.0801 0.3205 0.26069
These predictions are based on all announced leap seconds.

CELESTIAL POLE OFFSET SERIES:
NEOS Celestial Pole Offset Series
MJD dpsi error deps error
(msec. of arc)
55912 -71.01 0.40 -7.62 0.07
55913 -71.04 0.30 -7.38 0.04
55914 -71.13 0.30 -7.11 0.04
55915 -71.30 0.25 -6.91 0.02
55916 -71.46 0.25 -6.92 0.02
55917 -71.47 0.25 -7.15 0.02
55918 -71.30 0.25 -7.46 0.02
55919 -71.06 0.38 -7.61 0.01
55920 -70.85 0.38 -7.50 0.01
55921 -70.62 0.44 -7.27 0.12
55922 -70.32 0.44 -7.12 0.12
55923 -70.07 0.44 -7.15 0.12

IAU2000A Celestial Pole Offset Series
MJD dX error dY error
(msec. of arc)
55912 0.226 0.159 0.089 0.070
55913 0.229 0.119 0.067 0.040
55914 0.247 0.119 0.037 0.040
55915 0.271 0.099 0.000 0.020
55916 0.284 0.099 -0.037 0.020
55917 0.286 0.099 -0.041 0.020
55918 0.285 0.099 -0.043 0.020
55919 0.292 0.151 -0.060 0.010
55920 0.299 0.151 -0.086 0.010
55921 0.303 0.175 -0.112 0.120
55922 0.308 0.175 -0.127 0.120
55923 0.316 0.175 -0.144 0.120

The recommended software to predict celestial pole offsets can be found at
a href="http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/earth-orientation/software/aux/ceppred.f" target="_blank">http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/earth-orientation/software/aux/ceppred.f>
and software for the calculation of the dX and dY components with
respect to IAU2000A Nutation/Precession Theory can be found at the
a href="http://maia.usno.navy.mil/conv2010/conventions.html" target="_blank">http://maia.usno.navy.mil/conv2010/conventions.html>
web site in Chapter 5 Section 5.5 of the IERS Conventions (2010).

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Comment by Old Jules on January 15, 2012 at 3:31am

Morgan:  No question that's true.  But scientific measurements aren't what changed.  The people who build Stonehenge knew the moon went all over the sky in cycles and measured it accurately enough so's you could still use it with only a few miniscule adjustments.  Interpretation of the data provided by the measurements changes, sometimes rapidly, sometimes slowly, sometimes abruptly.

 

Echo:  Preparing is mainly a mental process. 

Comment by Echo on January 14, 2012 at 10:28pm

The only thing that doesn't change is that things are always changing.  Once a person figures that out, they usually make preparations accordingly.

Comment by Morgan on January 14, 2012 at 6:14pm

And what I really like about scientific measurement, analysis and opinion is that it's a lot like the weather.

If you're unhappy with the current scientifically correct facts, wait a few years and they'll make a new discovery and you'll have a new set of scientifically correct facts and possibly a whole new scientific universe to support it. I liked it so much better when it was scientifically impossible to go faster than the speed of sound.

At least the Christians have been telling the same story (almost) for nigh onto 17-18 centuries now.

Comment by Old Jules on January 14, 2012 at 6:09pm

A person needs to believe whatever he thinks is best Morgan.  What people choose to believe is no concern of mine.  But magnetic north does wander around a lot, compass declination changes..  has nothing to do with the spin axis.  Entirely different physical phenomenon.

 

Whatever works best for you though.  No concern of mine.

 

Comment by Old Jules on January 14, 2012 at 6:03pm

Magnetic north

Comment by Morgan on January 14, 2012 at 5:43pm

I would think so too, Jules, except in this case it caused so much trouble at the Tampa bay airport they had to realign the landing strips that were too close to the bay.

In any case, I only know one thing- what will be will be, and all we can do is prepare for the possibilities as we are led to do so.

Comment by Old Jules on January 14, 2012 at 4:49pm

MJD x(arcsec) y(arcsec) UT1-UTC(sec)
2012-01-13, 55939 0.0970 0.2543 -0.43096

Half the arc, 90 degrees, is roughly 6000 miles.  60 minutes to a degree.  60 seconds to a minute.  Gives a rough idea how much distance of movement there is.

Comment by Old Jules on January 14, 2012 at 4:38pm

Echo:  Hope the explanation helped.  On the other hand, if it didn't it's no big deal.  I've got no investment in what people choose to believe or not believe.  I just put this up for anyone who preferred to actually examine what's been observed and measured as a means of deciding what to believe.

Comment by Echo on January 14, 2012 at 4:35pm

I'm glad I'm not the only one who has trouble deciphering.  I saw the numbers and got a case of M.E.G.O.

Comment by Old Jules on January 14, 2012 at 12:31pm

Morgan:  40 feet of polar wobble happens frequently enough to qualify as fairly standard nutation and obliquity.  It happens and has always happened for a lot of reasons, including the interior weight of the earth moving around and the orbit of the moon carrying it all over the sky.  The barycentric [center of mass] of the moon and earth as a result of their orbital relationships do a lot, but there's also the barycenter of the solar system moving around constantly, sometimes more distant than a person might expect from the actual body of the sun.  The result of the positions of the gas giants, mainly.

 

You can track axial movements fairly closely with nutation and obliquity calculations, but some are unanticipated enough to make it impossible to determine what time it was precisely in, say, Frankfurt or Hong Kong last week by a fraction of a second or so.  There's a 30 second cumulative margin of error since January 2009, as I recall. 

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